Supply chain resilience after the China shock
5 min read
China remains an important sourcing market for German companies: from January to May 2026, imports of goods rose by 6.2 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier. Trade statistics do not, however, show how severely an individual business would be affected by a disruption. To assess this, procurement teams and management need to know which intermediate products are critical and where they actually come from. A reliable alternative requires more than a second quote: it also needs verified capacity and a plan for switching suppliers.
Key points at a glance
- Dependence varies by business and component. In a 2024 ifo survey, 37 per cent of German manufacturing companies said they relied on important intermediate products from China.
- Two suppliers may rely on the same upstream source. For critical components, companies should also ask about origins, production sites and shared sub-suppliers.
- An alternative must work when it is needed. Qualification, available quantities, lead time and costs belong in the procurement plan.
What the China figures reveal about supply chains
German imports of goods from China reached €72.4 billion from January to May 2026, according to the Federal Statistical Office. That was 6.2 per cent more than in the same period a year earlier. The statistics cover goods of different kinds and do not in themselves show how easily individual products can be replaced.
An ifo survey from 2024 provides an indication for manufacturing: at the time, 37 per cent of manufacturing companies in Germany said they depended on important intermediate products from China. In February 2022, the figure was 46 per cent. The figures reflect what the surveyed companies reported at those points in time and do not measure the current situation of every SME.
What does supply chain resilience mean? It refers to a supply chain’s ability to absorb disruptions and restore supply. This includes, for example, alternative sources of supply, suitable stock levels and decisions prepared in advance for the loss of a supplier.
Identify critical parts and their origins
The starting point is a list of parts and materials whose absence would have a particularly severe impact on production or deliveries to customers. For each part, companies can record which supplier provides it, where it is manufactured and how long existing stock will last at normal consumption rates. Contractual minimum quantities and replenishment lead times also belong in this overview.
The next step is to examine upstream stages. A direct supplier in Europe may source components or raw materials from China. Procurement teams can ask key suppliers about production sites and major sub-suppliers. Where information remains incomplete, the gap should be made visible as a risk in its own right. A digital platform can collect data and provide pointers. The origin of the parts still needs to be established with the companies involved.
Qualify alternatives before a disruption
A second supplier is only a reliable option once the part meets technical requirements and the required quantity is available. This involves samples, tests and approval by the relevant departments. Delivery times, transport routes, payment terms and potential investment in tooling also form part of the comparison.
It is also crucial to establish whether both suppliers rely on the same factory or raw material supplier. A switch within the supply chain can shift the risk elsewhere. Companies assessing a supplier closer to their own plant should therefore consider its intermediate products and spare capacity as well as distance. For particularly critical parts, an agreed safety stock can buy time for the transition.
A simple contingency plan sets out who makes decisions during a disruption, which customers receive supplies first and how quickly an approved replacement supplier can start delivering. A trial run involving procurement, production and sales shows which information or approvals are still missing.
Raw materials targets as a guide for procurement
For certain raw materials, the search for alternatives may involve several processing stages. The Council of the EU names China as a major supplier of numerous critical raw materials to the EU, including rare earth elements and magnesium.
The Critical Raw Materials Act sets EU-wide benchmarks for strategic raw materials for 2030: at least ten per cent of annual EU consumption should come from extraction in the EU, at least 40 per cent should be processed there and at least 25 per cent should come from recycling within the EU. In addition, no more than 65 per cent of annual EU consumption of each strategic raw material at any relevant processing stage should come from a single third country. These benchmarks are not procurement quotas for individual SMEs.
Frequently asked questions
What does de-risking mean in the supply chain?
De-risking means taking targeted steps to reduce critical dependencies. For example, a company can qualify an additional supplier or agree on a stockholding for parts that are difficult to replace.
How can a company identify shared risks across two suppliers?
It can ask both about their production sites and major sub-suppliers. If they use the same upstream source, the contingency plan should account for a disruption at that source.
Is nearshoring always the cheaper solution?
That depends on the product and the contract terms. The comparison should include the purchase price as well as transport, stockholding, qualification, available quantities and potential switching costs.
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Translated from the German original using artificial intelligence. The German version is authoritative.
