KfW: Households want heat pumps, few plan to buy
5 min read
Two-thirds of German households want to invest in heat pumps, solar panels or electric cars, the highest share in three years. Yet only one in twenty plans a purchase within twelve months, KfW’s new Energy Transition Barometer shows. Meanwhile, the federal government is cutting its extra subsidy for early heating replacement: on 1 February 2027, it falls from 16 to 12 percent.
Key takeaways
- 66 percent of households want to invest in the energy transition, seven points more than in 2025. This is the first increase since 2023. KfW surveyed 4,381 households.
- Only five percent planned a purchase within twelve months when the survey closed on 1 April 2026. Around 14 million households already use at least one energy transition technology.
- 59 percent use such technology in their own house, compared with 15 percent in rented flats. Housing tenure divides adoption more sharply than attitudes.
- The climate speed bonus for heating replacement falls from 16 to 12 percent on 1 February 2027. Applications must be submitted before work begins.
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What is the Energy Transition Barometer? KfW’s annual household survey on technology, plans and support for transforming the energy supply. The latest edition draws on 4,381 interviews conducted between 10 December 2025 and 1 April 2026.
66 percent want to invest, five percent have a timeframe
On 27 August 2026, KfW published its latest Energy Transition Barometer. 66 percent of households want to invest in the energy transition themselves, the first increase since 2023 after last year’s low of 59 percent.
Support for moving away from coal, oil and gas never collapsed: 84 percent consider it important or very important. What was missing was a willingness to spend their own money. KfW chief economist Dirk Schumacher cites the hot summer of 2026 as evidence that climate action remains necessary. However, the survey ended on 1 April, so the figures do not reflect the summer.
Who has already bought and who still wants to
Around 14 million households, just over a third, already have at least one technology listed in the table. Those yet to adopt are taking their time: only five percent plan a purchase within twelve months. For heating installers, this means order books filled by retrofits and customers switching systems rather than a wave of new prospects.
| Household technology | 2026 | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Rooftop photovoltaics | 18 percent | 16 percent the previous year |
| Battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids | 10 percent | 7 percent the previous year |
| Battery storage in households with rooftop photovoltaics | 55 percent | 31 percent three years ago |
| Heat pump | 9 percent | Not available |
| Wood pellets | 6 percent | Not available |
| Gas or oil heating | 63 percent | Not available |
Source: KfW Energy Transition Barometer 2026, published on 27 August 2026, 4,381 households surveyed.
The table shows how far the transition has progressed: rooftop solar is commonplace, heat pumps are in only one in eleven households, and six in ten still use gas or oil heating. That is the market the bonus targets.
Owners have the technology, tenants support the transition
59 percent of households in their own one- or two-family house use at least one energy transition technology, compared with 15 percent in rented flats. Electric cars dominate among tenants because the roof and heating belong to the landlord. Support for the transition is high in both groups. The gap comes down to roof and basement ownership and the landlord’s role.
Schumacher highlights another divide: lower-income households often lack the funds. They are more likely to use gas or oil heating and therefore pay more in carbon charges, set at 55 to 65 euros per tonne under the Fuel Emissions Trading Act since January 2026. Those unable to afford a heat pump pay the rising levy on fuel.
The bonus falls from 1 February 2027
For heating installers, the survey’s most important figure is a date. The Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings programme (BEG) offers a basic subsidy of 30 percent for replacing residential heating, plus a climate speed bonus for owners replacing old oil or gas heating early. This bonus is currently 16 percent and falls to 12 percent on 1 February 2027, then by another four percentage points every six months. Applications must be submitted before work begins; otherwise, the lower rate applies.
| Residential heating replacement subsidies | Terms |
|---|---|
| Basic subsidy plus climate speed bonus today | 30 plus 16 percent of eligible costs, capped at 28,000 euros for the first dwelling |
| Climate speed bonus from 1 February 2027 | 12 percent, then four points less every six months |
| Heat pumps from the first quarter of 2027 | Basic subsidy of 15 percent plus a 15-point value creation bonus, only for equipment of EU origin |
Source: BEG guideline dated 27 August 2026 (Federal Gazette), KfW programme terms. A pending information sheet will define which equipment qualifies as being of EU origin.
The market impact is foreseeable: as year-end approaches, owners can secure the full bonus only by applying before work starts; the guideline sets the cut-off at 1 February 2027. Heating installers can expect enquiries beyond those reflected in the barometer’s five percent, since the survey ended before the guideline appeared. The second change affects manufacturers: from 2027, a heat pump without EU origin receives only half today’s basic subsidy. KfW has yet to publish the information sheet defining which equipment qualifies as European.
What remains unclear
Only the next edition will show whether the hot summer changed the five percent purchase intention figure. Whether installers can meet demand by January depends on waiting times and skilled labour, which the survey does not measure.
Frequently asked questions
What does KfW count as an energy transition investment?
Buying a heat pump, pellet heating system, photovoltaic system, solar thermal system or electric car. The barometer separately asks about willingness to buy and specific purchase plans for the next twelve months.
How does the value creation bonus work?
From 2027, heat pumps receive a basic subsidy of 15 percent plus another 15 points if the equipment is of EU origin. Without EU origin, the subsidy remains 15 percent. A KfW information sheet defining which equipment qualifies as European is still pending.
Do the same rules apply to commercial buildings?
No. Non-residential buildings fall under KfW programme 522, offering a 30 percent subsidy and up to 35 percent with an efficiency bonus, subject to a separate cap. The household survey does not cover them.
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Translated from the German original using artificial intelligence. The German version is authoritative.
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