Business sentiment improves in the Mittelstand
4 min read
Up four points. Business sentiment among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) rises to minus 17.3 points in July, remaining well below zero. The KfW-ifo-Barometer mainly measures hope: expectations gain almost seven points, while current business barely changes. At large companies, the boost has faded.
Key takeaways
- Situation: SME sentiment gains four points in July to reach minus 17.3, remaining deeply negative.
- Figures: Expectations gain almost seven points to reach minus 17.2. Current conditions barely change, remaining at minus 17.5.
- Divide: Sentiment among manufacturing SMEs rises almost ten points. Large companies slip 0.1 points to minus 20.7.
- Risk: Some questionnaires went out before renewed escalation in the Middle East. KfW Research warns of a temporary high.
Related:Financing climate Q2 2026: credit tight, capital available / Mittelstand slows investment despite need
What is the KfW-ifo-Barometer? The KfW-ifo-Mittelstandsbarometer analyses ifo business surveys by company size. It separates SMEs from large companies, providing balances for sentiment, current conditions, expectations, employment and prices. KfW Research published July’s figures on 29 July 2026.
Up four points, still below zero
Look at the direction and conditions seem easier. Look at the level and they remain in the doldrums. SME business sentiment rises four points in July to minus 17.3. Zero remains far away.
The boost comes almost entirely from expectations. They rise around seven points to minus 17.2. Assessments of current business barely change, remaining at minus 17.5. Hope drives the barometer. Current business remains cold.
That is precisely the divide. Sentiment driven solely by the outlook can reverse within a month. KfW Research makes this point in its July headline: hopefully more than a temporary high.
Manufacturing gains almost ten points
The jump is uneven across sectors. Sentiment among manufacturing SMEs rises almost ten points. Construction and trade also improve strongly. Services barely move.
That fits an industrial economy awaiting orders that have yet to generate cash. Companies selling machinery, parts or equipment view the coming months more favourably. Those billing for services still feel the daily strain.
The recovery is therefore a factory-floor story. This is where exports, employment and long supply chains are concentrated.
Large companies stand still
Sentiment at large companies slips 0.1 points in July, remaining at minus 20.7. Their June boost has faded. SMEs are catching up; large companies are treading water.
This challenges the picture of a broad turnaround. If large companies became more hopeful in June but made no further gains in July, the recovery’s breadth remains unproven. The Mittelstand carries July alone.
Yet it too remains deeply negative. Catching up here means milder pessimism. Minus 17 is no green light. It is a milder winter.
Employment plans brighten, selling prices fall
SME employment expectations rise just over four points to minus 7.4. Companies therefore plan fewer job cuts than in June. The reading remains negative. Hiring remains the exception.
Meanwhile, selling price expectations fall almost nine points to minus 2.9. Pricing power is shrinking. This eases pressure on customers and squeezes margins. Companies hoping to finance optimism through higher prices find no support in this figure.
Together, these leave little room: slightly less fear over jobs, little scope to raise prices. This remains stabilisation at a low level.
KfW Research warns of a temporary high
KfW Research identifies a driver and a caveat. The federal government launched a reform programme before the summer recess. Some questionnaires, however, went out before renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf conflict. Expectations may therefore look brighter than conditions were in early August.
That is precisely why July’s jump proves no turnaround. It is a qualified snapshot of sentiment. Anyone judging Germany’s reboot by this barometer must await the next release. August’s figures will show whether hope translates into business or remains a temporary statistical high.
Until then, the stark reading holds: the Mittelstand hopes. Business remains cold. Large companies stand still.
Frequently asked questions
What does the KfW-ifo-Barometer measure?
It analyses monthly ifo surveys by company size. SME sentiment, current conditions and expectations appear alongside the same balances for large companies. Employment and selling prices complete the picture. KfW Research published July’s figures on 29 July 2026.
Why is sentiment still negative after the jump?
A four-point rise cannot erase a deep deficit. At minus 17.3 points, companies rating conditions or the outlook poorly still outweigh those with positive assessments. Zero remains far away.
Is the Mittelstand overtaking large companies?
In July, yes, in terms of direction. SMEs gain four points; large companies lose 0.1 points to stand at minus 20.7. Both groups remain well below zero. This does not amount to overtaking in absolute terms.
What do falling selling price expectations mean?
Fewer companies expect to secure higher prices. Expectations fall almost nine points to minus 2.9. This dampens selling price inflation but squeezes margins. Hope without pricing power must rest on volumes or costs.
How reliable is July’s jump?
Only partly. Some questionnaires went out before renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf conflict. KfW Research cautions that the figure may represent a temporary high. August’s survey is the stress test.
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Translated from the German original using artificial intelligence. The German version is authoritative.
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